Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
UKRPremier League · Matchday 11Friday, 30 October 2026 · Obolon Arena
Shakhtar Donetsk
1st · 28 pts17:00KICK-OFF WAT
Obolon'-Brovar
14th · 7 pts86% Shakhtar
11% Draw
3% Obolon'-Brovar
OUR PICK
Shakhtar Donetsk to win
Model probability 86% · fair odds
1.16
Expected goals
2.59 – 0.31
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.16X9.13234.70
Goals 2.5Over1.81Under2.10
Both scoreGG3.77NG1.33
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.33
NG
75%
Double chance@1.03
1X
97%
Season stats
Shakhtar DonetskObolon'-Brovar2.0Goals per game0.4
0.5Conceded per game1.7
2.55Points per game0.70
82%Win rate10%
17Goal difference-13
13Form, last 5 (pts)4
Shakhtar Donetsk form
WDLWH Dynamo Kyiv3–0
H Zorya Luhansk0–0
A Inter1–0
H Kolos Kovalivka2–1
Obolon'-Brovar form
LWWDA Polessya3–0
H Veres Rivne2–0
H Kryvbas KR1–0
A Chornomorets1–1
Head to head
0
Shakhtar
0
Draw
0
Obolon'-Brovar
These sides haven't met recently.
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Shakhtar Donetsk11+1728
2Polessya10+1525
3FC Kharkiv9+1121
4Dynamo Kyiv9+519
5Karpaty10+916
6LNZ Cherkasy10+115
7Zorya Luhansk10-115
8Kolos Kovalivka9-111
9Chornomorets10-49
10Epitsentr Dunayivtsi10-49
Match preview
Our model makes Shakhtar Donetsk clear favourites, giving them a 86% chance of winning against 11% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.16 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (2.59 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 0.31 for Obolon'-Brovar), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shakhtar Donetsk sit 1st on 28 points; Obolon'-Brovar are 14th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.