Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
UKRPremier League · Matchday 9Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Arena Lviv
Shakhtar Donetsk
1st · 28 pts2–1FULL TIME
Kolos Kovalivka
8th · 11 pts73% Shakhtar
18% Draw
9% Kolos
OUR PICK
Shakhtar Donetsk to win
Model probability 73% · fair odds
1.37
Expected goals
2.17 – 0.62
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.37X5.66210.83
Goals 2.5Over1.90Under2.01
Both scoreGG2.30NG1.69
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.69
NG
59%
Double chance@1.10
1X
91%
Season stats
Shakhtar DonetskKolos Kovalivka2.0Goals per game1.3
0.5Conceded per game1.4
2.55Points per game1.22
82%Win rate33%
17Goal difference-1
13Form, last 5 (pts)9
Shakhtar Donetsk form
WWDLWH Obolon'-Brovar2–0
H Dynamo Kyiv3–0
H Zorya Luhansk0–0
A Inter1–0
H Kolos Kovalivka2–1
Kolos Kovalivka form
WLWLA Veres Rivne0–2
A Shakhtar Donetsk2–1
H Epitsentr Dunayivtsi3–1
H Zorya Luhansk1–2
Head to head
2
Shakhtar
1
Draw
2
Kolos
Oct 2026Shakhtar Donetsk – Kolos Kovalivka2–1
May 2026Shakhtar Donetsk – Kolos Kovalivka0–1
Dec 2025Kolos Kovalivka – Shakhtar Donetsk0–0
Apr 2025Shakhtar Donetsk – Kolos Kovalivka2–4
Oct 2024Kolos Kovalivka – Shakhtar Donetsk0–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Shakhtar Donetsk11+1728
2Polessya10+1525
3Dynamo Kyiv10+722
4FC Kharkiv9+1121
5Karpaty11+1419
6Zorya Luhansk11018
7LNZ Cherkasy10+115
8Kolos Kovalivka9-111
9Chornomorets10-49
10Epitsentr Dunayivtsi11-59
Match preview
Our model makes Shakhtar Donetsk clear favourites, giving them a 73% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (2.17 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 0.62 for Kolos Kovalivka), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shakhtar Donetsk sit 1st on 28 points; Kolos Kovalivka are 8th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.