Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · Stamford Bridge
Shakhtar Donetsk
17th · 4 pts3–1FULL TIME
AEK Athens FC
29th · 3 pts51% Shakhtar
23% Draw
26% AEK
OUR PICK
Shakhtar Donetsk to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.96
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.24
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.96X4.3523.84
Goals 2.5Over1.70Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.68NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.68
GG
60%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
Shakhtar DonetskAEK Athens FC1.3Goals per game1.0
1.0Conceded per game2.7
1.33Points per game1.00
33%Win rate33%
1Goal difference-5
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
Shakhtar Donetsk form
WDLWH Dynamo Kyiv3–0
H Zorya Luhansk0–0
A Inter1–0
H Kolos Kovalivka2–1
AEK Athens FC form
LLWLA Panathinaikos2–0
A PAOK3–1
H Panetolikos5–0
A Manchester City5–1
Head to head
1
Shakhtar
0
Draw
1
AEK
Oct 2026Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens FC3–1
Jul 2023AEK Athens FC – Shakhtar Donetsk5–0
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Shakhtar Donetsk slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.96 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.82 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 1.24 for AEK Athens FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shakhtar Donetsk sit 17th on 4 points; AEK Athens FC are 29th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.