Over 1.5 goals@1.61
Over 1.5
62%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 2Sunday, 18 October 2026
Shabana
8th · 6 pts0–0FULL TIME
Nairobi United
12th · 4 pts49% Shabana
28% Draw
22% Nairobi
OUR PICK
Shabana to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.03
Expected goals
1.32 – 0.79
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.03X3.5124.47
Goals 2.5Over2.70Under1.55
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.67
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.55
Under 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.67
NG
60%
Double chance@1.29
1X
78%
Season stats
ShabanaNairobi United0.5Goals per game1.2
0.3Conceded per game1.4
1.50Points per game0.80
25%Win rate0%
1Goal difference-1
6Form, last 5 (pts)4
Shabana form
DDDWLH Migori Youth1–1
A AFC Leopards0–0
H Nairobi United0–0
A Posta Rangers FC0–1
H KCB1–2
Nairobi United form
DLDDDH Bandari1–1
A Murang'a SEAL3–2
H APS Bomet1–1
A Shabana0–0
H KCB2–2
Head to head
0
Shabana
1
Draw
2
Nairobi
Oct 2026Shabana – Nairobi United0–0
Apr 2026Nairobi United – Shabana3–0
Jan 2026Shabana – Nairobi United1–3
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
4Murang'a SEAL5+27
5Migori Youth4+26
6APS Bomet5+26
7Mara Sugar4+16
8Shabana4+16
9Kenya Police405
10Mathare United405
Match preview
Our model makes Shabana slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.03 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.32 for Shabana, 0.79 for Nairobi United), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Shabana sit 8th on 6 points; Nairobi United are 12th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.