KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 5Monday, 2 November 2026

Shabana

8th · 6 pts

14:15KICK-OFF WAT

Kenya Police

9th · 5 pts

37% Shabana

41% Draw

22% Kenya

OUR PICK

Draw

Model probability 41% · fair odds

2.41

Expected goals

0.72 – 0.48

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.71X2.4124.61

Goals 2.5Over7.86Under1.14

Both scoreGG4.72NG1.24

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@2.96

Over 1.5

34%

Over/Under 2.5@1.14

Under 2.5

88%

Both teams to score@1.24

80%

Double chance@1.28

78%

Season stats

ShabanaKenya Police

0.5Goals per game0.8

0.3Conceded per game0.8

1.50Points per game1.25

25%Win rate25%

1Goal difference0

6Form, last 5 (pts)5

Shabana form

DDDWL

H Migori Youth1–1

A AFC Leopards0–0

H Nairobi United0–0

A Posta Rangers FC0–1

H KCB1–2

Kenya Police form

WDLDL

H Ulinzi Stars1–0

A Mombasa Elite0–0

H AFC Leopards1–2

A Migori Youth1–1

A Tusker2–1

Head to head

Shabana

Draw

Kenya

These sides haven't met recently.

FKF Premier League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1GOR Mahia5+412

2KCB5+310

3AFC Leopards5+39

4Murang'a SEAL5+27

5Migori Youth4+26

6APS Bomet5+26

7Mara Sugar4+16

8Shabana4+16

9Kenya Police405

10Mathare United405

Match preview

Our model makes Shabana slight favourites, giving them a 37% chance of winning against 41% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Draw" is 2.41 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 1.2 goals in total (0.72 for Shabana, 0.48 for Kenya Police), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Shabana sit 8th on 6 points; Kenya Police are 9th on 5.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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