Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 10Monday, 26 October 2026 · Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán
Sevilla
6th · 17 pts2–0FULL TIME
Osasuna
14th · 11 pts57% Sevilla
21% Draw
22% Osasuna
OUR PICK
Sevilla to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.75
Expected goals
2.11 – 1.24
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.75X4.8124.56
Goals 2.5Over1.54Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.60NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.54
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.60
GG
62%
Double chance@1.26
12
79%
Season stats
SevillaOsasuna1.6Goals per game1.0
1.6Conceded per game2.0
1.70Points per game1.10
50%Win rate30%
0Goal difference-10
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
Sevilla form
LWWLDA Getafe3–1
A Hortaleza0–3
H Osasuna2–0
A Real Madrid4–1
A Levante3–3
Osasuna form
WLWLDA Atletico Calatayud0–6
A Sevilla2–0
H Racing Santander2–0
A Real Betis5–2
H Rayo Vallecano1–1
Head to head
2
Sevilla
1
Draw
2
Osasuna
Oct 2026Sevilla – Osasuna2–0
Apr 2026Osasuna – Sevilla2–1
Nov 2025Sevilla – Osasuna1–0
Apr 2025Osasuna – Sevilla1–0
Dec 2024Sevilla – Osasuna1–1
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid10+1524
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad10+119
6Sevilla10017
7Athletic Club9+312
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Sevilla clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.75 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.11 for Sevilla, 1.24 for Osasuna), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sevilla sit 6th on 17 points; Osasuna are 14th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.