Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 12Friday, 6 November 2026
Sevilla
6th · 17 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Alaves
11th · 12 pts46% Sevilla
23% Draw
31% Alaves
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Both teams to score
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.61
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.39
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.17X4.2923.26
Goals 2.5Over1.65Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.61NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.65
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.61
GG
62%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
SevillaAlaves1.5Goals per game1.4
1.7Conceded per game1.5
1.55Points per game1.09
45%Win rate27%
-2Goal difference-2
4Form, last 5 (pts)2
Sevilla form
LWWLDA Getafe3–1
A Hortaleza0–3
H Osasuna2–0
A Real Madrid4–1
A Levante3–3
Alaves form
LDLLDA Barcelona6–1
H Malaga1–1
A Celta Vigo2–1
H Atletico Madrid1–2
A Athletic Club0–0
Head to head
1
Sevilla
2
Draw
2
Alaves
Feb 2026Sevilla – Alaves1–1
Dec 2025Alaves – Sevilla1–0
Sept 2025Alaves – Sevilla1–2
Apr 2025Sevilla – Alaves1–1
Sept 2024Alaves – Sevilla2–1
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Deportivo La Coruna11+114
9Villarreal11012
10Celta Vigo11012
Match preview
Our model makes Sevilla slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.17 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.75 for Sevilla, 1.39 for Alaves), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sevilla sit 6th on 17 points; Alaves are 11th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.