Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
BULFirst League · Matchday 13Friday, 6 November 2026
Septemvri Sofia
14th · 8 pts16:00KICK-OFF WAT
Lokomotiv Sofia
12th · 9 pts38% Septemvri
25% Draw
37% Lokomotiv
OUR PICK
Septemvri Sofia to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.65
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.43
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.65X4.0122.68
Goals 2.5Over1.83Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.72NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.72
GG
58%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Septemvri SofiaLokomotiv Sofia0.8Goals per game1.2
1.9Conceded per game1.9
0.62Points per game0.69
15%Win rate8%
-14Goal difference-10
0Form, last 5 (pts)5
Septemvri Sofia form
LLLLA Arda Kardzhali2–1
A Cherno More Varna2–0
A Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa2–1
H Dunav Ruse2–3
Lokomotiv Sofia form
LDWDWH Botev Plovdiv2–5
H Botev Vratsa1–1
A Vihren1–2
H Lokomotiv Plovdiv1–1
H Radnicki NIS4–1
Head to head
2
Septemvri
1
Draw
2
Lokomotiv
Apr 2026Lokomotiv Sofia – Septemvri Sofia1–1
Mar 2026Lokomotiv Sofia – Septemvri Sofia3–0
Aug 2025Septemvri Sofia – Lokomotiv Sofia1–0
May 2025Septemvri Sofia – Lokomotiv Sofia0–2
Dec 2024Lokomotiv Sofia – Septemvri Sofia1–2
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali13-121
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Cherno More Varna13-812
10Dunav Ruse13-711
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Septemvri Sofia 38%, the draw 25%, Lokomotiv Sofia 37%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.44 for Septemvri Sofia, 1.43 for Lokomotiv Sofia), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Septemvri Sofia sit 14th on 8 points; Lokomotiv Sofia are 12th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.