Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
BULFirst League · Matchday 11Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Stadion Dragalevtsi
Septemvri Sofia
14th · 8 pts2–3FULL TIME
Dunav Ruse
10th · 11 pts35% Septemvri
28% Draw
37% Dunav
OUR PICK
Dunav Ruse to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.69
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.22
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.84X3.6222.69
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.76
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.95
NG
51%
Double chance@1.38
12
72%
Season stats
Septemvri SofiaDunav Ruse0.8Goals per game1.2
1.9Conceded per game1.7
0.67Points per game0.85
17%Win rate23%
-13Goal difference-7
0Form, last 5 (pts)7
Septemvri Sofia form
LLLLA Arda Kardzhali2–1
A Cherno More Varna2–0
A Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa2–1
H Dunav Ruse2–3
Dunav Ruse form
LWWWDH Levski Sofia0–1
H Spartak Varna2–0
A Rilski Sportist2–3
A Septemvri Sofia2–3
A Ludogorets II1–1
Head to head
0
Septemvri
3
Draw
2
Dunav
Oct 2026Septemvri Sofia – Dunav Ruse2–3
Apr 2024Septemvri Sofia – Dunav Ruse1–2
Oct 2023Dunav Ruse – Septemvri Sofia1–1
Apr 2019Septemvri Sofia – Dunav Ruse1–1
Apr 2019Dunav Ruse – Septemvri Sofia2–2
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali12-218
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Cherno More Varna13-812
10Dunav Ruse13-711
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Septemvri Sofia 35%, the draw 28%, Dunav Ruse 37%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.69 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.18 for Septemvri Sofia, 1.22 for Dunav Ruse), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Septemvri Sofia sit 14th on 8 points; Dunav Ruse are 10th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.