Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 24Friday, 2 October 2026 · Lumen Field
Seattle Sounders
10th · 43 pts2–1FULL TIME
Sporting Kansas City
15th · 23 pts64% Seattle
20% Draw
16% Sporting
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Seattle Sounders to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.56
Expected goals
2.11 – 0.95
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.56X5.0026.25
Goals 2.5Over1.70Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.86NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.86
GG
54%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
Season stats
Seattle SoundersSporting Kansas City1.3Goals per game1.2
1.4Conceded per game2.5
1.30Points per game0.70
33%Win rate18%
-3Goal difference-42
2Form, last 5 (pts)1
Seattle Sounders form
LLDDLA Vancouver Whitecaps5–1
H Houston Dynamo0–1
A San Diego2–2
H CF Montreal1–1
A FC Dallas1–0
Sporting Kansas City form
DLLLLH FC Dallas1–1
A Minnesota United FC3–1
H Austin1–2
H Real Salt Lake1–3
A Nashville SC4–0
Head to head
4
Seattle
1
Draw
0
Sporting
Oct 2026Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas City2–1
May 2026Sporting Kansas City – Seattle Sounders1–1
Aug 2025Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas City5–2
Jul 2025Sporting Kansas City – Seattle Sounders2–3
Sept 2024Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas City2–0
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model makes Seattle Sounders clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.56 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.11 for Seattle Sounders, 0.95 for Sporting Kansas City), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Seattle Sounders sit 10th on 43 points; Sporting Kansas City are 15th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.