Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 7Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Home Deluxe Arena
SC Paderborn 07
14th · 9 pts1–0FULL TIME
Hamburger SV
15th · 9 pts53% SC
25% Draw
22% Hamburger
OUR PICK
SC Paderborn 07 to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.94
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.90X3.9824.48
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.94
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.94
NG
51%
Double chance@1.29
1X
78%
Season stats
SC Paderborn 07Hamburger SV0.8Goals per game0.9
1.1Conceded per game2.4
1.13Points per game1.13
25%Win rate38%
-3Goal difference-12
8Form, last 5 (pts)9
SC Paderborn 07 form
DLWDLA Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0
H VfB Stuttgart0–1
H Hamburger SV1–0
A Werder Bremen2–2
H VfB Stuttgart0–2
Hamburger SV form
LLLWWA Eintracht Frankfurt3–1
H Eintracht Frankfurt1–3
A SC Paderborn 071–0
H VfB Stuttgart1–0
A 1899 Hoffenheim2–3
Head to head
4
SC
1
Draw
0
Hamburger
Oct 2026SC Paderborn 07 – Hamburger SV1–0
Mar 2025SC Paderborn 07 – Hamburger SV2–0
Sept 2024Hamburger SV – SC Paderborn 072–2
May 2024SC Paderborn 07 – Hamburger SV1–0
Dec 2023Hamburger SV – SC Paderborn 071–2
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes SC Paderborn 07 clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.59 for SC Paderborn 07, 0.94 for Hamburger SV), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
SC Paderborn 07 sit 14th on 9 points; Hamburger SV are 15th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.