Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Europa-Park Stadion
SC Freiburg
18th · 3 pts3–2FULL TIME
FK Jablonec
24th · 1 pts31% SC
28% Draw
41% FK
OUR PICK
FK Jablonec to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.43
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.28
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.23X3.6022.43
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.72
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
53%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
SC FreiburgFK Jablonec1.5Goals per game1.0
2.5Conceded per game1.5
1.50Points per game0.50
50%Win rate0%
-2Goal difference-1
3Form, last 5 (pts)1
SC Freiburg form
WWLLLA FC Augsburg1–2
H VfL Wolfsburg3–2
H Bayern München1–3
A Monaco3–0
A Bayer Leverkusen2–1
FK Jablonec form
LWDLLH Slavia Praha0–5
A Hradec Králové1–2
H Brighton0–0
H Plzen2–3
A SC Freiburg3–2
Head to head
1
SC
0
Draw
0
FK
Oct 2026SC Freiburg – FK Jablonec3–2
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model makes FK Jablonec slight favourites, giving them a 41% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.07 for SC Freiburg, 1.28 for FK Jablonec), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
SC Freiburg sit 18th on 3 points; FK Jablonec are 24th on 1.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.