Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
68%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 5Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Europa-Park-Stadion
SC Freiburg
3rd · 16 pts2–1FULL TIME
FC Schalke 04
17th · 6 pts62% SC
23% Draw
14% FC
OUR PICK
SC Freiburg to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.61
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.67
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.61X4.2626.98
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.73
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.66
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.66
NG
60%
Double chance@1.17
1X
86%
Season stats
SC FreiburgFC Schalke 042.3Goals per game0.5
1.3Conceded per game1.1
2.00Points per game0.75
63%Win rate13%
8Goal difference-5
7Form, last 5 (pts)2
SC Freiburg form
WWLLLA FC Augsburg1–2
H VfL Wolfsburg3–2
H Bayern München1–3
A Monaco3–0
A Bayer Leverkusen2–1
FC Schalke 04 form
LLDLLH RB Leipzig0–2
A Dynamo Dresden2–0
A 1. FC Köln0–0
H FSV Mainz 050–1
A SC Freiburg2–1
Head to head
5
SC
0
Draw
0
FC
Oct 2026SC Freiburg – FC Schalke 042–1
Apr 2023SC Freiburg – FC Schalke 044–0
Oct 2022FC Schalke 04 – SC Freiburg0–2
Apr 2021SC Freiburg – FC Schalke 044–0
Dec 2020FC Schalke 04 – SC Freiburg0–2
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes SC Freiburg clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.70 for SC Freiburg, 0.67 for FC Schalke 04), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
SC Freiburg sit 3rd on 16 points; FC Schalke 04 are 17th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.