Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 7Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Europa-Park-Stadion
SC Freiburg
3rd · 16 pts1–3FULL TIME
Bayern München
1st · 18 pts38% SC
22% Draw
40% Bayern
OUR PICK
Bayern München to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.50
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.83
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.63X4.5622.50
Goals 2.5Over1.43Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.43NG3.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.43
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.43
GG
70%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
SC FreiburgBayern München2.3Goals per game3.4
1.3Conceded per game1.0
2.00Points per game2.25
63%Win rate63%
8Goal difference19
7Form, last 5 (pts)11
SC Freiburg form
WWLLLA FC Augsburg1–2
H VfL Wolfsburg3–2
H Bayern München1–3
A Monaco3–0
A Bayer Leverkusen2–1
Bayern München form
DWWDWH Borussia Dortmund2–2
H 1. FC Magdeburg6–1
A SC Freiburg1–3
H Arsenal2–2
H RB Leipzig6–1
Head to head
0
SC
0
Draw
5
Bayern
Oct 2026SC Freiburg – Bayern München1–3
Apr 2026SC Freiburg – Bayern München2–3
Nov 2025Bayern München – SC Freiburg6–2
Jan 2025SC Freiburg – Bayern München1–2
Sept 2024Bayern München – SC Freiburg2–0
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: SC Freiburg 38%, the draw 22%, Bayern München 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.50 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (1.78 for SC Freiburg, 1.83 for Bayern München), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
SC Freiburg sit 3rd on 16 points; Bayern München are 1st on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.