Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 8Friday, 9 October 2026 · Estádio Municipal de Braga
SC Braga
8th · 14 pts1–3FULL TIME
Sporting CP
3rd · 21 pts34% SC
26% Draw
39% Sporting
OUR PICK
Sporting CP to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.56
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.34
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.91X3.7822.56
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.91
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
SC BragaSporting CP1.2Goals per game2.3
1.1Conceded per game1.1
1.40Points per game2.10
40%Win rate60%
1Goal difference12
4Form, last 5 (pts)8
SC Braga form
WDLWLH Famalicao3–0
H Famalicao2–2
A Nacional1–0
H Gent2–0
H GIL Vicente1–2
Sporting CP form
WWLLWA Casa Pia0–2
H Maritimo2–1
H Academico Viseu1–2
H Lask Linz2–3
A Lens0–2
Head to head
0
SC
3
Draw
2
Sporting
Oct 2026SC Braga – Sporting CP1–3
Mar 2026SC Braga – Sporting CP2–2
Oct 2025Sporting CP – SC Braga1–1
Apr 2025Sporting CP – SC Braga1–1
Nov 2024SC Braga – Sporting CP2–4
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica10+1925
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente10+115
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca10-111
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: SC Braga 34%, the draw 26%, Sporting CP 39%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.56 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.24 for SC Braga, 1.34 for Sporting CP), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
SC Braga sit 8th on 14 points; Sporting CP are 3rd on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.