Over 1.5 goals@2.00
Over 1.5
50%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 2Monday, 19 October 2026 · Estádio Municipal de Braga
SC Braga
8th · 14 pts1–2FULL TIME
GIL Vicente
7th · 14 pts42% SC
34% Draw
25% GIL
OUR PICK
SC Braga to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.41
Expected goals
0.99 – 0.69
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.41X2.9724.04
Goals 2.5Over3.93Under1.31
Both scoreGG3.04NG1.46
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.31
Under 2.5
76%
Both teams to score@1.46
NG
69%
Double chance@1.33
1X
75%
Season stats
SC BragaGIL Vicente1.2Goals per game0.9
1.1Conceded per game0.8
1.40Points per game1.56
40%Win rate44%
1Goal difference1
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
SC Braga form
WDLWLH Famalicao3–0
H Famalicao2–2
A Nacional1–0
H Gent2–0
H GIL Vicente1–2
GIL Vicente form
LLWWWA Benfica4–1
H FC Porto0–1
A SC Braga1–2
A União Santarém2–3
A Moreirense0–1
Head to head
1
SC
1
Draw
3
GIL
Oct 2026SC Braga – GIL Vicente1–2
Feb 2026GIL Vicente – SC Braga2–1
Sept 2025SC Braga – GIL Vicente0–1
Feb 2025SC Braga – GIL Vicente2–0
Sept 2024GIL Vicente – SC Braga0–0
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente9+114
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca9011
Match preview
Our model makes SC Braga slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 34% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.41 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.7 goals in total (0.99 for SC Braga, 0.69 for GIL Vicente), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
SC Braga sit 8th on 14 points; GIL Vicente are 7th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.