Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
ITASerie A · Matchday 9Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Sassuolo
17th · 8 pts2–6FULL TIME
Lazio
1st · 28 pts18% Sassuolo
20% Draw
62% Lazio
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Lazio to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.69
Expected goals
1.05 – 2.13
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.62X4.9521.61
Goals 2.5Over1.63Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.75NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.75
GG
57%
Double chance@1.22
X2
82%
Season stats
SassuoloLazio1.6Goals per game2.4
2.6Conceded per game0.8
0.80Points per game2.80
20%Win rate90%
-10Goal difference16
1Form, last 5 (pts)15
Sassuolo form
LLLLDH Fiorentina2–4
H Lazio2–6
A Como2–0
A Frosinone4–2
H AC Milan1–1
Lazio form
WWWWWH Cagliari2–1
A Sassuolo2–6
H Parma2–1
A Juventus0–3
H Monza3–1
Head to head
1
Sassuolo
1
Draw
3
Lazio
Oct 2026Sassuolo – Lazio2–6
Mar 2026Lazio – Sassuolo2–1
Sept 2025Sassuolo – Lazio1–0
May 2024Lazio – Sassuolo1–1
Oct 2023Sassuolo – Lazio0–2
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Lazio clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.05 for Sassuolo, 2.13 for Lazio), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sassuolo sit 17th on 8 points; Lazio are 1st on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.