Over 1.5 goals@1.11
Over 1.5
90%
ITASerie A · Matchday 10Monday, 2 November 2026 · Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Sassuolo
15th · 8 pts18:30KICK-OFF WAT
Fiorentina
17th · 5 pts53% Sassuolo
20% Draw
27% Fiorentina
OUR PICK
Sassuolo to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
2.31 – 1.63
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.89X5.0323.69
Goals 2.5Over1.33Under3.77
Both scoreGG1.38NG3.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.33
Over 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.38
GG
72%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
SassuoloFiorentina1.6Goals per game1.2
2.4Conceded per game2.3
0.89Points per game0.56
22%Win rate11%
-8Goal difference-10
1Form, last 5 (pts)2
Sassuolo form
LLLDLH Lazio2–6
A Como2–0
A Frosinone4–2
H AC Milan1–1
A Monza2–1
Fiorentina form
DLLLDH Atalanta2–2
A Inter2–1
H Como1–3
A Genoa2–1
H Napoli1–1
Head to head
2
Sassuolo
1
Draw
2
Fiorentina
Apr 2026Fiorentina – Sassuolo0–0
Dec 2025Sassuolo – Fiorentina3–1
Apr 2024Fiorentina – Sassuolo5–1
Jan 2024Sassuolo – Fiorentina1–0
Jun 2023Sassuolo – Fiorentina1–3
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio9+1525
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4AC Milan10+921
5Como9+920
6Frosinone9+817
7Napoli9+614
8Bologna10+114
9Juventus9+114
10Torino9013
Match preview
Our model makes Sassuolo slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.9 goals in total (2.31 for Sassuolo, 1.63 for Fiorentina), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sassuolo sit 15th on 8 points; Fiorentina are 17th on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.