Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
NOREliteserien · Matchday 24Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Sarpsborg Stadion
Sarpsborg 08 FF
9th · 31 pts0–3FULL TIME
Rosenborg
4th · 43 pts31% Sarpsborg
25% Draw
44% Rosenborg
OUR PICK
Rosenborg to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.27
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.56
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.22X4.0322.27
Goals 2.5Over1.86Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.76NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.76
GG
57%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Sarpsborg 08 FFRosenborg1.3Goals per game2.0
1.6Conceded per game1.2
1.24Points per game1.72
32%Win rate52%
-7Goal difference18
6Form, last 5 (pts)13
Sarpsborg 08 FF form
LWWLWH Kristiansund BK2–4
H Valerenga3–2
H Aalesund2–1
H Rosenborg0–3
A Aalesund2–4
Rosenborg form
WLWWDA Fredrikstad0–3
H Ham-Kam1–2
A Ham-Kam0–3
A Sarpsborg 08 FF0–3
H Sandefjord1–1
Head to head
1
Sarpsborg
2
Draw
2
Rosenborg
Oct 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF – Rosenborg0–3
Apr 2026Rosenborg – Sarpsborg 08 FF2–1
Oct 2025Rosenborg – Sarpsborg 08 FF2–3
Jul 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF – Rosenborg2–2
Jun 2025Rosenborg – Sarpsborg 08 FF2–2
Eliteserien table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Viking25+3859
2Bodo/Glimt25+3859
3Molde25+2043
4Rosenborg25+1843
5Lillestrom25+342
6Tromso25+540
7Brann25+332
8Valerenga25-332
9Sarpsborg 08 FF25-731
10KFUM Oslo25-931
Match preview
Our model makes Rosenborg slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.27 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.56 for Rosenborg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sarpsborg 08 FF sit 9th on 31 points; Rosenborg are 4th on 43.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.