Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
NOREliteserien · Matchday 12Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Sarpsborg Stadion
Sarpsborg 08 FF
9th · 31 pts2–1FULL TIME
Aalesund
14th · 24 pts48% Sarpsborg
22% Draw
30% Aalesund
OUR PICK
Sarpsborg 08 FF to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.06
Expected goals
1.97 – 1.51
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.06X4.5823.36
Goals 2.5Over1.48Under2.95
Both scoreGG1.49NG2.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.48
Over 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.49
GG
67%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
Sarpsborg 08 FFAalesund1.3Goals per game1.7
1.6Conceded per game2.3
1.24Points per game0.96
32%Win rate20%
-7Goal difference-14
6Form, last 5 (pts)6
Sarpsborg 08 FF form
LWWLWH Kristiansund BK2–4
H Valerenga3–2
H Aalesund2–1
H Rosenborg0–3
A Aalesund2–4
Aalesund form
LWLWLH Sandefjord3–4
A Kristiansund BK0–2
A Sarpsborg 08 FF2–1
A Kristiansund BK1–4
H Sarpsborg 08 FF2–4
Head to head
4
Sarpsborg
0
Draw
1
Aalesund
Oct 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF – Aalesund2–1
Oct 2026Aalesund – Sarpsborg 08 FF2–4
Oct 2023Aalesund – Sarpsborg 08 FF3–2
May 2023Sarpsborg 08 FF – Aalesund3–1
Sept 2022Aalesund – Sarpsborg 08 FF1–3
Eliteserien table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Viking25+3859
2Bodo/Glimt25+3859
3Molde25+2043
4Rosenborg25+1843
5Lillestrom25+342
6Tromso25+540
7Brann25+332
8Valerenga25-332
9Sarpsborg 08 FF25-731
10KFUM Oslo25-931
Match preview
Our model makes Sarpsborg 08 FF slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.06 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (1.97 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.51 for Aalesund), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sarpsborg 08 FF sit 9th on 31 points; Aalesund are 14th on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.