Over 1.5 goals@1.59
Over 1.5
63%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · Estadio Eva Peron
Sarmiento Junin
1–1FULL TIME
River Plate
20% Sarmiento
28% Draw
53% River
OUR PICK
River Plate to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
0.74 – 1.40
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.05X3.6421.90
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.57
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.65
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.65
NG
61%
Double chance@1.25
X2
80%
Sarmiento Junin form
LLDDWH Rosario Central1–2
A Gimnasia L.P.2–0
H Barracas Central1–1
H River Plate1–1
A Aldosivi1–3
River Plate form
LWWDWA Boca Juniors1–0
H Racing Club1–0
A Belgrano Cordoba0–3
A Sarmiento Junin1–1
H Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1–0
Head to head
1
Sarmiento
2
Draw
2
River
Oct 2026Sarmiento Junin – River Plate1–1
Mar 2026River Plate – Sarmiento Junin2–0
Oct 2025River Plate – Sarmiento Junin0–1
Apr 2025Sarmiento Junin – River Plate1–1
Jul 2024River Plate – Sarmiento Junin1–0
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes River Plate clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (0.74 for Sarmiento Junin, 1.40 for River Plate), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.