Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
BRASerie A · Matchday 21Friday, 2 October 2026 · Estadio Do MorumBIS
Sao Paulo
10th · 43 pts1–2FULL TIME
Santos
8th · 47 pts44% Sao
26% Draw
30% Santos
OUR PICK
Sao Paulo to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.29
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.15
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.29X3.8323.32
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.92
Both scoreGG1.92NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.92
GG
52%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Sao PauloSantos1.2Goals per game1.5
1.2Conceded per game1.4
1.30Points per game1.42
36%Win rate36%
0Goal difference2
7Form, last 5 (pts)6
Sao Paulo form
LDWWLA Bahia3–2
A Mirassol1–1
H Vasco DA Gama1–0
H Vitoria2–1
A Cruzeiro2–0
Santos form
DDWLDH Palmeiras0–0
H Bahia1–1
A Fluminense1–2
A Atletico-MG2–1
H Flamengo2–2
Head to head
2
Sao
1
Draw
2
Santos
Oct 2026Sao Paulo – Santos1–2
Feb 2026Santos – Sao Paulo1–1
Jan 2026Sao Paulo – Santos2–0
Sept 2025Santos – Sao Paulo1–0
Apr 2025Sao Paulo – Santos2–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Sao Paulo slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.44 for Sao Paulo, 1.15 for Santos), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sao Paulo sit 10th on 43 points; Santos are 8th on 47.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.