Over 1.5 goals@1.56
Over 1.5
64%
BRASerie A · Matchday 34Thursday, 5 November 2026 · Estadio Do MorumBIS
Sao Paulo
10th · 43 pts01:30KICK-OFF WAT
Corinthians
17th · 36 pts46% Sao
28% Draw
26% Corinthians
OUR PICK
Sao Paulo to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.20
Expected goals
1.29 – 0.90
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.20X3.5123.85
Goals 2.5Over2.55Under1.60
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.75
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.60
Under 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.75
NG
57%
Double chance@1.35
1X
74%
Season stats
Sao PauloCorinthians1.2Goals per game1.1
1.2Conceded per game1.3
1.30Points per game1.09
36%Win rate27%
0Goal difference-6
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
Sao Paulo form
LDWWLA Bahia3–2
A Mirassol1–1
H Vasco DA Gama1–0
H Vitoria2–1
A Cruzeiro2–0
Corinthians form
WLDLLH Mirassol2–0
A Vasco DA Gama3–2
H Vitoria1–1
A Palmeiras4–1
A Internacional2–1
Head to head
2
Sao
1
Draw
2
Corinthians
May 2026Corinthians – Sao Paulo3–2
Jan 2026Corinthians – Sao Paulo1–1
Nov 2025Corinthians – Sao Paulo3–1
Jul 2025Sao Paulo – Corinthians2–0
Jan 2025Sao Paulo – Corinthians3–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Sao Paulo slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.20 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.29 for Sao Paulo, 0.90 for Corinthians), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sao Paulo sit 10th on 43 points; Corinthians are 17th on 36.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.