Over 1.5 goals@1.36
Over 1.5
74%
BRASerie A · Matchday 33Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · Vila Belmiro
Santos
8th · 47 pts0–0FULL TIME
Palmeiras
2nd · 70 pts22% Santos
24% Draw
54% Palmeiras
OUR PICK
Palmeiras to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.86
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.66
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.59X4.1021.86
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.95
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.00
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.95
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@2.00
NG
50%
Double chance@1.28
X2
78%
Season stats
SantosPalmeiras1.5Goals per game1.7
1.4Conceded per game0.7
1.42Points per game2.12
36%Win rate61%
2Goal difference34
6Form, last 5 (pts)13
Santos form
DDWLDH Palmeiras0–0
H Bahia1–1
A Fluminense1–2
A Atletico-MG2–1
H Flamengo2–2
Palmeiras form
WDWLWH Vasco DA Gama1–0
A Santos0–0
H RB Bragantino2–0
H Fluminense0–1
A Atletico Paranaense0–2
Head to head
0
Santos
3
Draw
2
Palmeiras
Oct 2026Santos – Palmeiras0–0
Sept 2026Santos – Palmeiras0–0
Aug 2026Palmeiras – Santos3–0
May 2026Palmeiras – Santos1–1
Jan 2026Palmeiras – Santos1–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Palmeiras clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.86 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (0.96 for Santos, 1.66 for Palmeiras), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Santos sit 8th on 47 points; Palmeiras are 2nd on 70.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.