Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 15Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Estadio TSM Corona
Santos Laguna
12th · 19 pts1–0FULL TIME
Necaxa
17th · 10 pts59% Santos
22% Draw
20% Necaxa
OUR PICK
Santos Laguna to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.70
Expected goals
1.96 – 1.04
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.70X4.6225.10
Goals 2.5Over1.73Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.80NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.80
GG
56%
Double chance@1.24
1X
80%
Season stats
Santos LagunaNecaxa1.4Goals per game1.1
1.4Conceded per game1.9
1.36Points per game0.71
43%Win rate14%
0Goal difference-11
12Form, last 5 (pts)2
Santos Laguna form
No recent matches.
Necaxa form
DLLDLH FC Juarez1–1
A Guadalajara Chivas1–0
H Atlas0–2
A CF Pachuca3–3
H Club America2–4
Head to head
0
Santos
0
Draw
0
Necaxa
These sides haven't met recently.
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Atlas15027
4Cruz Azul14+926
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon14+322
8Monterrey14+521
9U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
10Club Queretaro14-320
Match preview
Our model makes Santos Laguna clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.96 for Santos Laguna, 1.04 for Necaxa), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Santos Laguna sit 12th on 19 points; Necaxa are 17th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.