Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
BRASerie A · Matchday 29Thursday, 8 October 2026 · Estadio Urbano Caldeira
Santos
9th · 47 pts2–2FULL TIME
Flamengo
1st · 73 pts21% Santos
22% Draw
56% Flamengo
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Flamengo to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.78
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.88
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.74X4.4621.77
Goals 2.5Over1.78Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.81NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.78
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.81
GG
55%
Double chance@1.27
X2
79%
Season stats
SantosFlamengo1.5Goals per game2.1
1.4Conceded per game0.8
1.38Points per game2.21
35%Win rate67%
1Goal difference40
5Form, last 5 (pts)13
Santos form
LDDWLA RB Bragantino2–1
H Palmeiras0–0
H Bahia1–1
A Fluminense1–2
A Atletico-MG2–1
Flamengo form
WWDWDA Vasco DA Gama1–4
H Atletico-MG3–2
H Estudiantes L.P.0–0
A Bahia0–3
A Estudiantes L.P.0–0
Head to head
2
Santos
1
Draw
2
Flamengo
Oct 2026Santos – Flamengo2–2
Apr 2026Flamengo – Santos3–1
Nov 2025Flamengo – Santos3–2
Jul 2025Santos – Flamengo1–0
Nov 2023Flamengo – Santos1–2
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8RB Bragantino34+547
9Santos34+147
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Flamengo clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.77 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.06 for Santos, 1.88 for Flamengo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Santos sit 9th on 47 points; Flamengo are 1st on 73.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.