Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
BRASerie A · Matchday 32Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Estadio Urbano Caldeira
Santos
8th · 47 pts1–1FULL TIME
Bahia
6th · 53 pts43% Santos
24% Draw
33% Bahia
OUR PICK
Santos to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.35
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.39
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.35X4.1323.00
Goals 2.5Over1.74Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.67NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.74
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.67
GG
60%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
SantosBahia1.5Goals per game1.5
1.4Conceded per game1.3
1.42Points per game1.61
36%Win rate42%
2Goal difference6
6Form, last 5 (pts)7
Santos form
LDDWLA RB Bragantino2–1
H Palmeiras0–0
H Bahia1–1
A Fluminense1–2
A Atletico-MG2–1
Bahia form
WDLWLH Sao Paulo3–2
A Santos1–1
H Flamengo0–3
H Mirassol1–0
A Palmeiras1–0
Head to head
1
Santos
3
Draw
1
Bahia
Oct 2026Santos – Bahia1–1
Apr 2026Bahia – Santos2–2
Aug 2025Bahia – Santos2–0
Apr 2025Santos – Bahia2–2
Sept 2023Bahia – Santos1–2
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Santos slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.35 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.60 for Santos, 1.39 for Bahia), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Santos sit 8th on 47 points; Bahia are 6th on 53.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.