Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 7Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Estadio El Campin
Santa Fe
7th · 29 pts2–1FULL TIME
Jaguares
16th · 18 pts65% Santa
20% Draw
15% Jaguares
OUR PICK
Santa Fe to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.54
Expected goals
2.12 – 0.92
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.54X5.0526.53
Goals 2.5Over1.71Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.89
GG
53%
Double chance@1.18
1X
85%
Season stats
Santa FeJaguares1.5Goals per game1.1
1.2Conceded per game1.7
1.53Points per game0.95
37%Win rate26%
7Goal difference-13
9Form, last 5 (pts)6
Santa Fe form
LLWWLH Once Caldas0–2
A Atletico Nacional2–0
H Bucaramanga2–1
H Jaguares2–1
A Llaneros1–0
Jaguares form
LWLLWA Deportivo Pereira1–0
H Llaneros1–0
A Santa Fe2–1
A Millonarios4–1
H Deportes Tolima3–2
Head to head
3
Santa
0
Draw
2
Jaguares
Oct 2026Santa Fe – Jaguares2–1
Feb 2026Jaguares – Santa Fe3–1
Nov 2024Santa Fe – Jaguares3–0
Apr 2024Jaguares – Santa Fe1–0
Jul 2023Santa Fe – Jaguares1–0
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Santa Fe clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (2.12 for Santa Fe, 0.92 for Jaguares), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Santa Fe sit 7th on 29 points; Jaguares are 16th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.