Over 1.5 goals@1.97
Over 1.5
51%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 11Sunday, 8 November 2026
Santa Clara
4th · 21 pts16:30KICK-OFF WAT
GIL Vicente
7th · 14 pts51% Santa
32% Draw
18% GIL
OUR PICK
Santa Clara to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.98
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.55
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.98X3.1525.66
Goals 2.5Over3.93Under1.32
Both scoreGG3.25NG1.41
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.32
Under 2.5
76%
Both teams to score@1.41
NG
71%
Double chance@1.21
1X
82%
Season stats
Santa ClaraGIL Vicente1.5Goals per game0.9
0.6Conceded per game0.8
2.10Points per game1.56
60%Win rate44%
9Goal difference1
10Form, last 5 (pts)7
Santa Clara form
WLLWDA Maritimo0–2
H Benfica1–2
A Mafra3–2
A Casa Pia0–1
H SC Braga0–0
GIL Vicente form
LLWWWA Benfica4–1
H FC Porto0–1
A SC Braga1–2
A União Santarém2–3
A Moreirense0–1
Head to head
4
Santa
0
Draw
1
GIL
Mar 2026Santa Clara – GIL Vicente1–0
Nov 2025GIL Vicente – Santa Clara1–0
Mar 2025GIL Vicente – Santa Clara0–1
Oct 2024Santa Clara – GIL Vicente2–1
May 2023Santa Clara – GIL Vicente3–2
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente9+114
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca9011
Match preview
Our model makes Santa Clara clear favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 32% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.98 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.7 goals in total (1.15 for Santa Clara, 0.55 for GIL Vicente), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Santa Clara sit 4th on 21 points; GIL Vicente are 7th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.