Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 9Monday, 26 October 2026 · Estádio de São Miguel
Santa Clara
4th · 21 pts1–2FULL TIME
Benfica
2nd · 22 pts39% Santa
27% Draw
34% Benfica
OUR PICK
Santa Clara to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.56
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.17
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.56X3.6722.97
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.80
Both scoreGG1.89NG1.99
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.99
NG
50%
Double chance@1.38
12
73%
Season stats
Santa ClaraBenfica1.5Goals per game2.9
0.6Conceded per game0.9
2.10Points per game2.44
60%Win rate78%
9Goal difference18
10Form, last 5 (pts)12
Santa Clara form
WLLWDA Maritimo0–2
H Benfica1–2
A Mafra3–2
A Casa Pia0–1
H SC Braga0–0
Benfica form
WWWWWH GIL Vicente4–1
A Santa Clara1–2
A Omonia Nicosia1–4
H Celtic4–1
H Vitória SC2–0
Head to head
0
Santa
1
Draw
4
Benfica
Oct 2026Santa Clara – Benfica1–2
Feb 2026Santa Clara – Benfica1–2
Sept 2025Benfica – Santa Clara1–1
Feb 2025Santa Clara – Benfica0–1
Oct 2024Benfica – Santa Clara3–0
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente9+114
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca9011
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Santa Clara 39%, the draw 27%, Benfica 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.56 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.28 for Santa Clara, 1.17 for Benfica), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Santa Clara sit 4th on 21 points; Benfica are 2nd on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.