Over 1.5 goals@1.54
Over 1.5
65%
NOREliteserien · Matchday 24Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Sandefjord Arena
Sandefjord
12th · 27 pts0–2FULL TIME
Lillestrom
5th · 42 pts37% Sandefjord
29% Draw
35% Lillestrom
OUR PICK
Sandefjord to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.74
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.09
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.74X3.4522.90
Goals 2.5Over2.48Under1.62
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.82
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Under 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.82
NG
55%
Double chance@1.41
12
71%
Season stats
SandefjordLillestrom1.0Goals per game1.4
1.4Conceded per game1.3
1.08Points per game1.68
28%Win rate52%
-8Goal difference3
7Form, last 5 (pts)10
Sandefjord form
WLLLDA Aalesund3–4
A ODD Ballklubb3–1
A Start1–0
H Lillestrom0–2
A Rosenborg1–1
Lillestrom form
WWWLWA Start0–1
H Sogndal2–1
H Brann3–2
H Real Sociedad0–6
A Sandefjord0–2
Head to head
2
Sandefjord
0
Draw
3
Lillestrom
Oct 2026Sandefjord – Lillestrom0–2
May 2026Lillestrom – Sandefjord3–1
Jan 2026Lillestrom – Sandefjord1–2
Nov 2024Lillestrom – Sandefjord0–3
Apr 2024Sandefjord – Lillestrom0–1
Eliteserien table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Viking25+3859
2Bodo/Glimt25+3859
3Molde25+2043
4Rosenborg25+1843
5Lillestrom25+342
6Tromso25+540
7Brann25+332
8Valerenga25-332
9Sarpsborg 08 FF25-731
10KFUM Oslo25-931
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Sandefjord 37%, the draw 29%, Lillestrom 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.74 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.13 for Sandefjord, 1.09 for Lillestrom), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sandefjord sit 12th on 27 points; Lillestrom are 5th on 42.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.