Over 1.5 goals@1.92
Over 1.5
52%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 34Monday, 19 October 2026 · Estadio Osvaldo Baletto
San Telmo
12th · 41 pts0–0FULL TIME
Defensores De Belgrano
15th · 39 pts39% San
33% Draw
28% Defensores
OUR PICK
San Telmo to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.59
Expected goals
0.97 – 0.78
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.59X3.0123.55
Goals 2.5Over3.63Under1.34
Both scoreGG2.77NG1.51
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.34
Under 2.5
74%
Both teams to score@1.51
NG
66%
Double chance@1.39
1X
72%
Season stats
San TelmoDefensores De Belgrano0.8Goals per game0.7
1.1Conceded per game0.9
1.14Points per game1.08
28%Win rate22%
-11Goal difference-9
7Form, last 5 (pts)3
San Telmo form
WLDLWH Central Norte1–0
A Deportivo Madryn4–1
H Defensores De Belgrano0–0
A Ciudad de Bolívar1–0
H Almirante Brown3–2
Defensores De Belgrano form
LDDLDA Colon Santa Fe2–0
H San Miguel0–0
A San Telmo0–0
H Acassuso0–3
A Chaco For Ever2–2
Head to head
1
San
1
Draw
3
Defensores
Oct 2026San Telmo – Defensores De Belgrano0–0
May 2026Defensores De Belgrano – San Telmo1–0
Jul 2025Defensores De Belgrano – San Telmo1–2
Feb 2025San Telmo – Defensores De Belgrano0–3
Aug 2024San Telmo – Defensores De Belgrano1–2
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes San Telmo slight favourites, giving them a 39% chance of winning against 33% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.59 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.8 goals in total (0.97 for San Telmo, 0.78 for Defensores De Belgrano), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
San Telmo sit 12th on 41 points; Defensores De Belgrano are 15th on 39.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.