Over 1.5 goals@2.37
Over 1.5
42%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 32Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Estadio Osvaldo Baletto
San Telmo
11th · 41 pts3–2FULL TIME
Almirante Brown
6th · 51 pts25% San
37% Draw
37% Almirante
OUR PICK
Draw
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.68
Expected goals
0.62 – 0.82
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.94X2.6822.68
Goals 2.5Over5.24Under1.21
Both scoreGG3.63NG1.35
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.21
Under 2.5
82%
Both teams to score@1.35
NG
74%
Double chance@1.34
X2
75%
Season stats
San TelmoAlmirante Brown0.8Goals per game0.8
1.1Conceded per game0.7
1.14Points per game1.42
28%Win rate36%
-11Goal difference4
7Form, last 5 (pts)5
San Telmo form
WLDLWH Central Norte1–0
A Deportivo Madryn4–1
H Defensores De Belgrano0–0
A Ciudad de Bolívar1–0
H Almirante Brown3–2
Almirante Brown form
LWDDLA Godoy Cruz2–1
H Deportivo Moron1–0
A Colon Santa Fe2–2
H San Miguel1–1
A San Telmo3–2
Head to head
1
San
1
Draw
3
Almirante
Oct 2026San Telmo – Almirante Brown3–2
May 2026Almirante Brown – San Telmo0–0
Sept 2025Almirante Brown – San Telmo1–0
May 2025San Telmo – Almirante Brown0–1
Oct 2024San Telmo – Almirante Brown0–1
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes35+149
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Almirante Brown slight favourites, giving them a 37% chance of winning against 37% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Draw" is 2.68 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.4 goals in total (0.62 for San Telmo, 0.82 for Almirante Brown), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
San Telmo sit 11th on 41 points; Almirante Brown are 6th on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.