Over 1.5 goals@2.04
Over 1.5
49%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 34Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Estadio Malvinas Argentinas
San Miguel
18th · 33 pts1–2FULL TIME
Ciudad de Bolívar
7th · 51 pts32% San
35% Draw
34% Ciudad
OUR PICK
Draw
Model probability 35% · fair odds
2.88
Expected goals
0.81 – 0.84
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.14X2.8822.98
Goals 2.5Over4.10Under1.30
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.46
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.30
Under 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.46
NG
68%
Double chance@1.47
X2
68%
Season stats
San MiguelCiudad de Bolívar0.8Goals per game0.8
1.2Conceded per game0.9
0.92Points per game1.42
17%Win rate36%
-15Goal difference-3
2Form, last 5 (pts)9
San Miguel form
LDLDLH Deportivo Madryn0–1
A Defensores De Belgrano0–0
H Ciudad de Bolívar1–2
A Almirante Brown1–1
H Atletico Mitre0–2
Ciudad de Bolívar form
LLWWWA Deportivo Moron2–0
H Colon Santa Fe0–2
A San Miguel1–2
H San Telmo1–0
A Acassuso0–1
Head to head
0
San
1
Draw
1
Ciudad
Oct 2026San Miguel – Ciudad de Bolívar1–2
May 2026Ciudad de Bolívar – San Miguel1–1
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: San Miguel 32%, the draw 35%, Ciudad de Bolívar 34%.
Our fair price for "Draw" is 2.88 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.6 goals in total (0.81 for San Miguel, 0.84 for Ciudad de Bolívar), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
San Miguel sit 18th on 33 points; Ciudad de Bolívar are 7th on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.