Over 1.5 goals@1.69
Over 1.5
59%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 34Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Estadio La Ciudadela
San Martin Tucuman
3–2FULL TIME
Midland
31% San
31% Draw
39% Midland
OUR PICK
Midland to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.60
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.07
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.26X3.2422.60
Goals 2.5Over2.95Under1.47
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.65
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.47
Under 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.65
NG
60%
Double chance@1.44
X2
69%
San Martin Tucuman form
DLWLWH Colegiales0–0
A Quilmes2–1
H Midland3–2
A Atlanta1–0
H Gimnasia Y Tiro1–0
Midland form
DWLWDA Atlanta0–0
H Gimnasia Y Tiro3–0
A San Martin Tucuman3–2
H Atletico DE Rafaela4–0
A Agropecuario0–0
Head to head
0
San
0
Draw
0
Midland
These sides haven't met recently.
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes35+149
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: San Martin Tucuman 31%, the draw 31%, Midland 39%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.60 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (0.92 for San Martin Tucuman, 1.07 for Midland), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.