Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
68%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 32Sunday, 4 October 2026
San Martin S.J.
1–2FULL TIME
Almagro
56% San
25% Draw
19% Almagro
OUR PICK
San Martin S.J. to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.78
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.79
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.78X3.9725.36
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.73
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.77
NG
57%
Double chance@1.23
1X
81%
San Martin S.J. form
WDDDLH Gimnasia Jujuy5–1
A Nueva Chicago1–1
H Temperley1–1
A Deportivo Maipu1–1
H Almagro1–2
Almagro form
LDLWWA Agropecuario2–1
H Tristan Suarez1–1
A Club Atlético Güemes2–1
H Chacarita Juniors2–1
A San Martin S.J.1–2
Head to head
3
San
0
Draw
2
Almagro
Oct 2026San Martin S.J. – Almagro1–2
May 2026Almagro – San Martin S.J.1–2
Sept 2023Almagro – San Martin S.J.0–3
Apr 2023San Martin S.J. – Almagro3–0
May 2022Almagro – San Martin S.J.1–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes35+149
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes San Martin S.J. clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.78 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.58 for San Martin S.J., 0.79 for Almagro), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.