Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 14Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Estadio Pedro Bidegain
San Lorenzo
7th · 22 pts0–0FULL TIME
Newells Old Boys
14th · 15 pts58% San
24% Draw
18% Newells
OUR PICK
San Lorenzo to win
Model probability 58% · fair odds
1.72
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.83
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.72X4.1925.52
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.86
NG
54%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
San LorenzoNewells Old Boys0.9Goals per game0.9
0.9Conceded per game1.7
1.38Points per game0.94
31%Win rate19%
0Goal difference-12
8Form, last 5 (pts)8
San Lorenzo form
DDWWLA Velez Sarsfield2–2
H Newells Old Boys0–0
A Estudiantes L.P.1–2
H Deportivo Riestra1–0
A Defensa Y Justicia3–0
Newells Old Boys form
DDWLDH Union Santa Fe1–1
A San Lorenzo0–0
H Central Cordoba de Santiago2–1
A Gimnasia M.1–0
H Lanus0–0
Head to head
0
San
4
Draw
1
Newells
Oct 2026San Lorenzo – Newells Old Boys0–0
Apr 2026Newells Old Boys – San Lorenzo0–0
Jul 2024San Lorenzo – Newells Old Boys1–1
Mar 2024Newells Old Boys – San Lorenzo2–2
Oct 2023San Lorenzo – Newells Old Boys0–3
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes San Lorenzo clear favourites, giving them a 58% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.72 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.70 for San Lorenzo, 0.83 for Newells Old Boys), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
San Lorenzo sit 7th on 22 points; Newells Old Boys are 14th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.