Over 1.5 goals@3.03
Over 1.5
33%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 12Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Pedro Bidegain
San Lorenzo
7th · 22 pts1–0FULL TIME
Deportivo Riestra
15th · 11 pts41% San
41% Draw
17% Deportivo
OUR PICK
San Lorenzo to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.41
Expected goals
0.78 – 0.40
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.41X2.4325.74
Goals 2.5Over7.86Under1.13
Both scoreGG5.24NG1.22
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.13
Under 2.5
88%
Both teams to score@1.22
NG
82%
Double chance@1.21
1X
83%
Season stats
San LorenzoDeportivo Riestra0.9Goals per game0.3
0.9Conceded per game0.8
1.38Points per game0.69
31%Win rate6%
0Goal difference-7
8Form, last 5 (pts)2
San Lorenzo form
DDWWLA Velez Sarsfield2–2
H Newells Old Boys0–0
A Estudiantes L.P.1–2
H Deportivo Riestra1–0
A Defensa Y Justicia3–0
Deportivo Riestra form
LLDLDH Talleres Cordoba0–3
A Instituto Cordoba1–0
H Union Santa Fe1–1
A San Lorenzo1–0
H Central Cordoba de Santiago1–1
Head to head
2
San
3
Draw
0
Deportivo
Oct 2026San Lorenzo – Deportivo Riestra1–0
Jul 2026San Lorenzo – Deportivo Riestra1–1
Mar 2026Deportivo Riestra – San Lorenzo1–1
Oct 2025San Lorenzo – Deportivo Riestra1–0
Apr 2025Deportivo Riestra – San Lorenzo0–0
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes San Lorenzo slight favourites, giving them a 41% chance of winning against 41% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.41 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.2 goals in total (0.78 for San Lorenzo, 0.40 for Deportivo Riestra), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
San Lorenzo sit 7th on 22 points; Deportivo Riestra are 15th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.