Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 30Sunday, 18 October 2026 · PayPal Park
San Jose Earthquakes
3rd · 52 pts1–1FULL TIME
Nashville SC
22% San
24% Draw
54% Nashville
OUR PICK
Nashville SC to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.87
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.69
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.48X4.1421.87
Goals 2.5Over1.99Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.94NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Over 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.94
GG
52%
Double chance@1.29
X2
78%
San Jose Earthquakes form
WDLDDH Real Salt Lake2–1
H Colorado Rapids2–2
A FC Dallas3–0
H Nashville SC1–1
A Real Salt Lake1–1
Nashville SC form
WDWDWH New York Red Bulls3–2
H Philadelphia Union0–0
A CF Montreal0–2
A San Jose Earthquakes1–1
H Sporting Kansas City4–0
Head to head
0
San
5
Draw
0
Nashville
Oct 2026San Jose Earthquakes – Nashville SC1–1
Apr 2024Nashville SC – San Jose Earthquakes1–1
Sept 2023San Jose Earthquakes – Nashville SC1–1
Jun 2022Nashville SC – San Jose Earthquakes0–0
Apr 2022San Jose Earthquakes – Nashville SC2–2
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model makes Nashville SC clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.87 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.00 for San Jose Earthquakes, 1.69 for Nashville SC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.