Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 29Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Snapdragon Stadium
San Diego
12th · 38 pts3–3FULL TIME
Houston Dynamo
5th · 51 pts40% San
26% Draw
35% Houston
OUR PICK
San Diego to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.52
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.30
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.52X3.8922.89
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
San DiegoHouston Dynamo1.7Goals per game1.3
1.9Conceded per game1.2
1.15Points per game1.59
27%Win rate44%
-5Goal difference3
6Form, last 5 (pts)7
San Diego form
WLDDDA St. Louis City0–1
A Vancouver Whitecaps4–1
H Seattle Sounders2–2
A Los Angeles Galaxy2–2
H Houston Dynamo3–3
Houston Dynamo form
WDDDDA Seattle Sounders0–1
H Minnesota United FC0–0
H FC Dallas2–2
A San Diego3–3
A Minnesota United FC2–2
Head to head
1
San
1
Draw
2
Houston
Oct 2026San Diego – Houston Dynamo3–3
Apr 2026Houston Dynamo – San Diego1–0
Oct 2025Houston Dynamo – San Diego2–4
Jul 2025San Diego – Houston Dynamo3–4
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps32+3458
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC32+1547
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders32+143
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: San Diego 40%, the draw 26%, Houston Dynamo 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.52 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.41 for San Diego, 1.30 for Houston Dynamo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
San Diego sit 12th on 38 points; Houston Dynamo are 5th on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.