Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
ITASerie B · Matchday 7Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Luigi Ferraris
Sampdoria
19th · 8 pts1–2FULL TIME
Arezzo
13th · 11 pts52% Sampdoria
24% Draw
24% Arezzo
OUR PICK
Sampdoria to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.92
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.04
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.92X4.1124.24
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.31
1X
76%
Season stats
SampdoriaArezzo1.0Goals per game0.9
1.8Conceded per game1.9
0.80Points per game1.10
20%Win rate30%
-8Goal difference-10
4Form, last 5 (pts)5
Sampdoria form
WLDLLH Virtus Entella2–0
A Ascoli2–0
A Sudtirol1–1
H Arezzo1–2
A Avellino4–1
Arezzo form
DLLWDH Ascoli0–0
A Carrarese2–1
H Benevento0–3
A Sampdoria1–2
H Cremonese0–0
Head to head
0
Sampdoria
0
Draw
1
Arezzo
Oct 2026Sampdoria – Arezzo1–2
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Sampdoria slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.92 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.67 for Sampdoria, 1.04 for Arezzo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sampdoria sit 19th on 8 points; Arezzo are 13th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.