Over 1.5 goals@1.63
Over 1.5
62%
GHAPremier League · Matchday 5Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Samartex Park
Samartex
2nd · 18 pts1–0FULL TIME
Young Apostles
17th · 7 pts64% Samartex
24% Draw
11% Young
OUR PICK
Samartex to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.56
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.50
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.56X4.0828.74
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.53
Both scoreGG3.04NG1.45
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.45
NG
69%
Double chance@1.13
1X
89%
Season stats
SamartexYoung Apostles1.1Goals per game0.6
0.6Conceded per game1.4
2.00Points per game0.78
56%Win rate22%
5Goal difference-8
10Form, last 5 (pts)4
Samartex form
WDWLWH Bibiani Gold Stars1–0
A Berekum Chelsea0–0
H Medeama2–1
A Ashanti Gold1–0
H Young Apostles1–0
Young Apostles form
DLLWLH Karela0–0
H Swedru All Blacks1–2
A Asante Kotoko2–1
H Aduana Stars1–0
A Samartex1–0
Head to head
2
Samartex
1
Draw
2
Young
Oct 2026Samartex – Young Apostles1–0
May 2026Young Apostles – Samartex2–0
Jan 2026Samartex – Young Apostles2–0
Apr 2025Young Apostles – Samartex1–1
Nov 2024Samartex – Young Apostles0–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Medeama9+718
2Samartex9+518
3Hearts of Oak9+617
4Aduana Stars9+416
5Port City9+415
6Ashanti Gold9+214
7Swedru All Blacks9+214
8Bechem United9+113
9Asante Kotoko9013
10Basake Holy Stars9-412
Match preview
Our model makes Samartex clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.56 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.58 for Samartex, 0.50 for Young Apostles), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Samartex sit 2nd on 18 points; Young Apostles are 17th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.