Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Peninsula Stadium
Salford City
1st · 31 pts1–0FULL TIME
Fleetwood Town
16th · 17 pts56% Salford
22% Draw
22% Fleetwood
OUR PICK
Salford City to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.79
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.09
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.79X4.4724.62
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
56%
Double chance@1.28
1X
78%
Season stats
Salford CityFleetwood Town1.8Goals per game1.3
1.1Conceded per game1.3
2.21Points per game1.21
71%Win rate29%
10Goal difference0
15Form, last 5 (pts)7
Salford City form
WWWWWH Exeter City2–1
A Walsall2–4
A Bristol Rovers1–2
H Crawley Town2–1
A Cheltenham0–2
Fleetwood Town form
WDLLWH Bristol Rovers3–1
H Arsenal1–1
A Exeter City2–1
A Cheltenham4–2
H Rotherham2–0
Head to head
1
Salford
3
Draw
1
Fleetwood
Oct 2026Salford City – Fleetwood Town1–0
Dec 2025Salford City – Fleetwood Town0–0
Dec 2025Fleetwood Town – Salford City1–1
Jan 2025Salford City – Fleetwood Town0–2
Oct 2024Fleetwood Town – Salford City2–2
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Salford City clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.79 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.89 for Salford City, 1.09 for Fleetwood Town), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Salford City sit 1st on 31 points; Fleetwood Town are 16th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.