Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Peninsula Stadium
Salford City
1st · 31 pts2–1FULL TIME
Crawley Town
24th · 9 pts68% Salford
18% Draw
13% Crawley
OUR PICK
Salford City to win
Model probability 68% · fair odds
1.46
Expected goals
2.26 – 0.88
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.46X5.4527.58
Goals 2.5Over1.65Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.65
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.15
1X
87%
Season stats
Salford CityCrawley Town1.8Goals per game1.1
1.1Conceded per game1.8
2.21Points per game0.75
71%Win rate17%
10Goal difference-8
15Form, last 5 (pts)5
Salford City form
WWWWWH Exeter City2–1
A Walsall2–4
A Bristol Rovers1–2
H Crawley Town2–1
A Cheltenham0–2
Crawley Town form
WDLLDA Oldham0–1
H Tranmere1–1
H Shrewsbury2–3
A Salford City2–1
H Chesterfield2–2
Head to head
3
Salford
2
Draw
0
Crawley
Oct 2026Salford City – Crawley Town2–1
May 2026Crawley Town – Salford City0–0
Nov 2025Salford City – Crawley Town4–3
Jan 2024Crawley Town – Salford City0–1
Aug 2023Salford City – Crawley Town1–1
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Salford City clear favourites, giving them a 68% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.46 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.26 for Salford City, 0.88 for Crawley Town), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Salford City sit 1st on 31 points; Crawley Town are 24th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.