Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
FRALigue 2 · Matchday 10Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Stade Geoffroy-Guichard
Saint Etienne
1st · 25 pts1–0FULL TIME
Nantes
15th · 9 pts72% Saint
16% Draw
12% Nantes
OUR PICK
Saint Etienne to win
Model probability 72% · fair odds
1.38
Expected goals
2.61 – 0.97
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.38X6.3028.48
Goals 2.5Over1.45Under3.04
Both scoreGG1.74NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.45
Over 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.74
GG
58%
Double chance@1.13
1X
88%
Season stats
Saint EtienneNantes2.1Goals per game1.1
1.0Conceded per game1.6
2.27Points per game0.82
73%Win rate18%
12Goal difference-6
10Form, last 5 (pts)5
Saint Etienne form
LWWWWA Guingamp3–0
H Nantes1–0
A RED Star FC 930–1
H Rodez2–0
H FC Sion5–1
Nantes form
DLLDWH Clermont Foot1–1
A Saint Etienne1–0
H Dunkerque2–3
H Reims0–0
A Boulogne1–2
Head to head
1
Saint
3
Draw
1
Nantes
Oct 2026Saint Etienne – Nantes1–0
Jan 2025Saint Etienne – Nantes1–1
Sept 2024Nantes – Saint Etienne2–2
May 2022Nantes – Saint Etienne1–1
Dec 2021Saint Etienne – Nantes0–1
Ligue 2 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Saint Etienne11+1225
2Montpellier11+1024
3PAU11+520
4Nancy10+419
5Reims10+818
6RED Star FC 9310+117
7Annecy11-116
8Dijon11+115
9Guingamp11+114
10Metz11014
Match preview
Our model makes Saint Etienne clear favourites, giving them a 72% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.38 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (2.61 for Saint Etienne, 0.97 for Nantes), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Saint Etienne sit 1st on 25 points; Nantes are 15th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.