Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Ekimae Real Estate Stadium
Sagan Tosu
13th · 17 pts2–1FULL TIME
Omiya Ardija
5th · 24 pts26% Sagan
26% Draw
48% Omiya
OUR PICK
Omiya Ardija to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.10
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.49
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.78X3.8522.10
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG2.00NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@2.00
GG
50%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Sagan TosuOmiya Ardija1.0Goals per game1.8
1.2Conceded per game1.2
1.21Points per game1.71
36%Win rate43%
-3Goal difference8
9Form, last 5 (pts)7
Sagan Tosu form
LLWLWA Jubilo Iwata2–0
H Kawasaki Frontale0–2
H Vanraure Hachinohe2–0
A Albirex Niigata2–1
H Omiya Ardija2–1
Omiya Ardija form
WDLLWA Vegalta Sendai1–2
H Yokohama FC2–2
H Kataller Toyama0–3
A Sagan Tosu2–1
H Vanraure Hachinohe3–1
Head to head
3
Sagan
2
Draw
0
Omiya
Oct 2026Sagan Tosu – Omiya Ardija2–1
Jun 2025Omiya Ardija – Sagan Tosu0–0
Mar 2025Sagan Tosu – Omiya Ardija1–0
Aug 2017Sagan Tosu – Omiya Ardija3–0
Jun 2017Omiya Ardija – Sagan Tosu1–1
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model makes Omiya Ardija slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.10 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.04 for Sagan Tosu, 1.49 for Omiya Ardija), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sagan Tosu sit 13th on 17 points; Omiya Ardija are 5th on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.