Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
71%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 16Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Ekimae Real Estate Stadium
Sagan Tosu
13th · 17 pts06:00KICK-OFF WAT
Kataller Toyama
3rd · 25 pts25% Sagan
26% Draw
49% Kataller
OUR PICK
Kataller Toyama to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.06
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.48
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.95X3.8222.06
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.81
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.94
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.94
NG
51%
Double chance@1.34
X2
75%
Season stats
Sagan TosuKataller Toyama1.0Goals per game1.9
1.2Conceded per game1.0
1.21Points per game1.79
36%Win rate50%
-3Goal difference12
9Form, last 5 (pts)8
Sagan Tosu form
DLLWLA Shonan Bellmare0–0
A Jubilo Iwata2–0
H Kawasaki Frontale0–2
H Vanraure Hachinohe2–0
A Albirex Niigata2–1
Kataller Toyama form
DWLWDH Vegalta Sendai0–0
A Albirex Niigata2–3
H Consadole Sapporo0–1
A Omiya Ardija0–3
H Shonan Bellmare1–1
Head to head
2
Sagan
0
Draw
1
Kataller
Aug 2026Sagan Tosu – Kataller Toyama4–0
Nov 2025Kataller Toyama – Sagan Tosu3–1
Mar 2025Sagan Tosu – Kataller Toyama1–0
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model makes Kataller Toyama slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.06 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (0.99 for Sagan Tosu, 1.48 for Kataller Toyama), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sagan Tosu sit 13th on 17 points; Kataller Toyama are 3rd on 25.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.