Over 1.5 goals@1.53
Over 1.5
65%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSunday, 25 October 2026 · Heart Health Park
Sacramento Republic
3–2FULL TIME
Oakland Roots
52% Sacramento
27% Draw
21% Oakland
OUR PICK
Sacramento Republic to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.93
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.80
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.93X3.7024.76
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.63
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.72
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.72
NG
58%
Double chance@1.27
1X
79%
Sacramento Republic form
WWWDDH FC Tulsa1–0
H Oakland Roots3–2
A El Paso Locomotive0–1
H Colorado Springs1–1
A FC Tulsa1–1
Oakland Roots form
LWDDWA Sacramento Republic3–2
A FC Tulsa2–4
H San Antonio0–0
A Colorado Springs0–0
H Phoenix Rising3–0
Head to head
4
Sacramento
1
Draw
0
Oakland
Oct 2026Sacramento Republic – Oakland Roots3–2
Jul 2026Oakland Roots – Sacramento Republic1–3
May 2026Oakland Roots – Sacramento Republic0–1
Aug 2025Sacramento Republic – Oakland Roots3–3
May 2025Oakland Roots – Sacramento Republic0–1
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Sacramento Republic clear favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.93 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.43 for Sacramento Republic, 0.80 for Oakland Roots), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.