Over 1.5 goals@1.70
Over 1.5
59%
USAUSL Championship · Round of 16Monday, 2 November 2026 · Heart Health Park
Sacramento Republic
03:00KICK-OFF WAT
FC Tulsa
48% Sacramento
30% Draw
23% FC
OUR PICK
Sacramento Republic to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.10
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.75
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.10X3.3624.42
Goals 2.5Over2.95Under1.47
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.60
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.47
Under 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.60
NG
63%
Double chance@1.29
1X
77%
Sacramento Republic form
No recent matches.
FC Tulsa form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Sacramento
0
Draw
0
FC
These sides haven't met recently.
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Sacramento Republic slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.10 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (1.23 for Sacramento Republic, 0.75 for FC Tulsa), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.