Over 1.5 goals@1.43
Over 1.5
70%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSunday, 11 October 2026 · Heart Health Park
Sacramento Republic
1–1FULL TIME
Colorado Springs
50% Sacramento
26% Draw
24% Colorado
OUR PICK
Sacramento Republic to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.01
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.95
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.01X3.8224.15
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.79
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
52%
Double chance@1.32
1X
76%
Sacramento Republic form
WWWDDH FC Tulsa1–0
H Oakland Roots3–2
A El Paso Locomotive0–1
H Colorado Springs1–1
A FC Tulsa1–1
Colorado Springs form
DWWDDA Lexington1–1
H FC Tulsa2–0
A Monterey Bay0–1
A Sacramento Republic1–1
H Oakland Roots0–0
Head to head
2
Sacramento
2
Draw
1
Colorado
Oct 2026Sacramento Republic – Colorado Springs1–1
Jun 2026Colorado Springs – Sacramento Republic0–1
Feb 2026Colorado Springs – Sacramento Republic1–0
Sept 2025Colorado Springs – Sacramento Republic0–2
Mar 2025Sacramento Republic – Colorado Springs2–2
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Sacramento Republic slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.01 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.49 for Sacramento Republic, 0.95 for Colorado Springs), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.